Estimated at N84.91 trillion in 2014, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Nigeria according to the expectations will grow to N95.09 trillion in 2015 and N156.29 trillion in 2019.
But following the weak recovery in the global economy, the need for improvement in infrastructure, the contractionary monetary and fiscal policy stance of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the federal government’s security challenges in some parts of the north, the real GDP growth rate for 2015 will be 5.68 per cent, representing a decline from the estimate of 5.99 per cent for 2014.
FSDH Securities Limited experts in an analysis of the economic and financial outlook for 2015 and 2019 showed that the nominal GDP is expected to reach N109.34 trillion by 2016, N126.86 trillion by 2017 and N142.08 by 2018 with a growth rate of 15 per cent, 16 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.
Analysts noted that the manufacturing sector is increasingly becoming attractive, even as the power sector reform gathers momentum.
The sector, according to the experts, has the capacity to generate sustainable income stream given the favourable population and demographic pattern of the Nigerian economy.
They said:“In addition, it also has the capacity to generate employment opportunities for the country. The agriculture sector reform continues to offer rewarding investments opportunities, as output continues to expand in the production of sugar, cassava, rice, etc. There are intervention funds set up the CBN to encourage long term investments in the agriculture sector, and at affordable rates.We expect the recent local content development in the Information, Communication and Telecommunication (ICT) industry to drive activities in the industry in the next few years. The real estate sector is set for another boost with the growing awareness for Real Estate Investment Trust Scheme (REIT) in the country, they added.”
FSDH predicted that the nation’s external reserve would continue to grow at a measured pace in 2019.
They state that the developments in the global oil industry, particularly improved oil production techniques and fuel switching technology will aid the growth.
FSDH says:“Other factors that will support the external reserve growth include: The general and consensual agreements by all OPEC members to achieve reasonable oil price for all members; particularly supply related agreement aimed at boosting oil prices, improvement in the power supply and the continued implementation of the agriculture sector reform”.
The experts note that the planning and enforcement of economic diversification programmes by the government, and political stability, could spur capital inflows in the form of Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI).
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